{"id":3280,"date":"2026-02-01T09:36:29","date_gmt":"2026-02-01T01:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jineng168.com\/?p=3280"},"modified":"2026-02-01T09:36:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-01T01:36:29","slug":"arthur-hayes-%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81-2025-%e5%a4%a7%e4%bc%9a%e6%bc%94%e8%ae%b2%ef%bc%9abtc-%e9%80%9a%e5%be%80-100-%e4%b8%87%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e4%b9%8b%e8%b7%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.jineng168.com\/?p=3280","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes \u6bd4\u7279\u5e01 2025 \u5927\u4f1a\u6f14\u8bb2\uff1aBTC \u901a\u5f80 100 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u8def"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"art_tit\">Arthur Hayes \u6bd4\u7279\u5e01 2025 \u5927\u4f1a\u6f14\u8bb2\uff1aBTC \u901a\u5f80 100 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u8def<\/h1>\n<div class=\"content_text\">\n<p><span><em><span>\u539f\u6587\u6807\u9898\uff1aArthur Hayes \u5728 Bitcoin 2025 \u4e0a\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u6f14\u8bb2\u300cIt\\&#8217;s F**king Maths\u300d<\/span><\/em><\/span><br \/><span><em><span>\u7f16\u8bd1\uff1a\u91d1\u8272\u8d22\u7ecf<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u7684\u4efb\u52a1<\/h3>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u4efb\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u662f\u8d1d\u68ee\u7279\uff08Bessent\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u4e0e\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\uff08George Soros\uff09\u5171\u4e8b\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e3b\u6743\u8d27\u5e01\u6302\u94a9\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u624d\u80fd\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u4ed6\u975e\u5e38\u4e86\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img \/><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u5f20 Bessent \u505a\u9500\u552e\u6f14\u793a\u7684\u7167\u7247\uff0c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u4eec\u4e2d\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u770b\u8fc7\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u300aGlengarry Glenn Ross\u300b\uff08\u5927\u4ea8\u6e38\u620f\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u90a3\u4e2a\u6807\u5fd7\u6027\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u5f53\u2026\u2026\u6211\u5fd8\u4e86\u90a3\u4e2a\u6f14\u5458\u7684\u540d\u5b57\uff0c\u4ed6\u7ad9\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u544a\u8bc9\u9500\u552e\u4eba\u5458 ABC\u2014\u2014\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b8c\u6210\u4ea4\u6613\uff08Always Be Closing\uff09\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u8d1d\u68ee\u7279\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u6240\u4ee5\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f60\u5728\u7535\u89c6\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u4ed6\uff0c\u60f3\u8c61\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8c\u624b\u8f66\u9500\u552e\u5458\uff0c\u4ed6\u6b63\u5728\u5411\u4f60\u63a8\u9500\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u5411\u4f60\u63a8\u9500\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u503a\u5238\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u5356\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u8001\u677f\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u2014\u2014\u9700\u8981\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u878d\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img 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GDP \u589e\u957f\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7\u4f60\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u8fd9\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u4f60\u6253\u7b97\u589e\u52a0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5ea7\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u5317\u7f8e\u5f85\u4e86\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u6211\u6210\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u90fd\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5927\u4e2d\u534e\u533a\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u751f\u6d3b\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u660e\u767d GDP \u6216\u589e\u957f\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4f60\u613f\u610f\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u6ce8\u5165\u591a\u5c11\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u4e86\u89e3\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u2014\u2014\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b66\u4e8b\u5b9e\u9762\u524d\u2014\u2014\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u660e\u767d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u613f\u610f\u5411\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6ce8\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u8d37\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u679c\u8d1d\u68ee\u7279\u8bf4\u4ed6\u4eec\u60f3\u8981 6% \u6216 7% \u7684\u540d\u4e49 GDP 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people\uff09\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u662f\u641e\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5c06\u5176\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u7528\u4e8e\u5411\u666e\u901a\u516c\u53f8\u653e\u8d37\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u521b\u9020\u5c31\u4e1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u5b58\u5728\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u6211\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u662f\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u8bcd\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5bf9\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u8d1f\u62c5\u5176\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u5728\u5ea7\u7684\u5404\u4f4d\u90fd\u660e\u767d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u5bf9\u6b64\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u5230\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 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Dimon\uff09\u975e\u5e38\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u4ed6\u5df2\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u573a\u5408\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u9700\u8981\u8fd9\u9879\u8c41\u514d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u5e38\u8bf4\u7684\uff0c\u6770\u7c73\u00b7\u6234\u8499\u60f3\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\u5c31\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u663e\u7136\u662f\u8fd1\u6765\u975e\u5e38\u70ed\u95e8\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002<strong>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5c06\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u6216\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u53d1\u884c\u7684\u4e0d\u4ed8\u606f\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u4e0e SLR \u8c41\u514d\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5c31\u53d8\u5f97\u50cf Tether 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Social\uff09\u4e0a\u5173\u4e8e\u623f\u5229\u7f8e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u7f8e\u7684\u4e00\u6761\u5e16\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u5728 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u524d\u53d1\u884c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u66fe\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u5229\u53ef\u56fe\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u91ca\u653e\u623f\u5229\u7f8e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u7f8e\u65f6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f60\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u63a5\u7ba1\u72b6\u6001\u4e2d\u89e3\u653e\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e24\u5e74\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f 11 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